Wednesday, February 23, 2005

Blue, Red, Swing "Regiones"?

This could be considered the ultimate snobby act. However, I will write the next post in English. Probably it will not be flawless, nonetheless I think it is a useful exercise, for me and for the people who will read it.
During the last months, Soledad Alvear has been declaring her intention of carrying out Internal Primaries for choosing the Concertación's Presidential Candidate. She and her spin-doctors have also stated their preference for Regional Primaries, that is, copying the way the Democrats and the Conservatives in USA choose their Presidential Candidate.
The aforementioned copy brought up the subject I will develop in the next lines: what would it happen if we try to find similarities between the electorate in our country and the electorate in the USA?
During 2004 we were bombed with information related to the USA election, one of the most repeated subject was the way the states in USA are divided according to the political tendency they support. You can find three main types of states, given the former results obtained in presidential elections. Red States: mainly Conservatives, where guns, fundamentalism, intolerance, religion, racism, fear and war are the main topics; Blue States: mainly Democrats, where real freedom, non-racism, diplomacy, peaceful solutions, tolerance and gun control are the main topics; and finally the Swing States, where you cannot tell the way the voters are going to behave. These are the states where the political forces concentrate all of their strength during campaigns.
Upon mining information from www.elecciones.gob.cl, I could figure out which are the corresponding Red, Blue and Swing Regions in our lovely country.

Swing Regions:
I Región: this region has shown a regular pattern during the last Presidential Elections, Lavin won with 50.57 % of the votes in 1999 and if you add up the results of Buchi and Errazuriz in 1989 you get a bit more than 50%, thus it could be considered a swing Region but with a tendency to be a Red Region.
V Región: the electorate favoured Aylwin in 1989, but in 1999 it shifted favouring Lavin with 52.08% of the votes.
VI Región: in 1989 it was considered as a Concertación stronghold, however the Alianza has shortened the distance during the last years.
VII región: same situation as VI Regions.
VII Región: same situation as VI and VII Regions.
X Región: it has kept a regular tendency of favouring Concertación.
XI Región: same as X Región.
Metropolitan Region: this is the place that concentrates the majority of voters. In 1989, Aylwin got more than 56% of the votes and although Concertación beat Alianza in 1999 the distance between the two political forces has shrunk.

Blue Regions:
II Región: Concertación has got more than 57% of the votes in 1989 and 1999.
III Región: same as II region.
IV Región: same as II and III regions.

Red Regions:
IX Region: the Right wing has won in every single election since 1989. It is the only region where Lavin gathered more than 55% of the votes.

As I wrote in prior paragraphs, Red States are infamously known for privilege the defence of stupid ideas such as fundamentalism, fear, intolerance.
Unfortunately, it seems that some patterns are common in both countries.

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